# Social Category > South African Politics Forum > [Opinion] The future of South Africa?

## Blurock

> I CAN predict when SAs "Tunisia Day" will arrive. Tunisia Day is when the masses rise against the powers that be, as happened recently in Tunisia. The year will be 2020, give or take a couple of years. The year 2020 is when China estimates that its current minerals-intensive industrialisation phase will be concluded.
> Moeletsi Mbeki, author of Architects of Poverty.


Why do I support this viewpoint?

Well, only 4.7 million taxpayers support a population of 50 million. This is not economically sustainable. the 4.7 million tax payers are made up of a number of professional people who will retire in the next 5-10 years. Have you noticed how old your average doctor, dentist or pharmacist is? The youngsters are/have emigrated because they could not get jobs in South Africa.

BEE is raping South Africa's resources and intellectual capital and is forcing an exodus of brains and capital.

"... half of the countrys professors and associate professors were retiring within the next ten years, and not enough has been done to adequately prepare for their replacement." Speaking at the 14th National Science and Technology Forum (NSTF)/ BHP Billiton Awards gala dinner, in Kempton Park, on Thursday, Science and Technology Minister Naledi Pandor said that strategies need to be developed to respond to this potential loss of skilled professionals.

The average age of a toolmaker is 54. The National Dept of Science and Technology and Dept of Education has realised the crises and is is trying to encourage a revitalisation of apprenticeships. A toolmaker can potentially create 14 jobs. These also include sales and services.

These are not the only skills that we have lost or are losing. As these people retire or leave formal employment, their retirement income will be less and they will not be as active economically. The result will be a decline in the tax base for a growing population. In contrast, further population growth is encouraged by the social grant system which will cause more stress on the financial system, while producing less.

With more demand on resources and a declining tax base as a percentage of the population, this is a recipe for disaster. I truly hope that I am wrong and that we will find a solution to save this beloved country of ours. The answer may well lie in a new leadership and a greater patriotism. :Hmmm:

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tec0 (25-Jun-12)

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## murdock

which one...the one where the ward councillors live in upmarket estate driving 1-2 million vehicles...have massive entertainment expenses...and visit their bankrupt ward on occassion to show the people what they actually do with the money which is suppose to go to service delivery.

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## Phil Cooper

The average age in the Insurance industry is now 58!

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## Blurock

It is interesting to note that many of the prisoners incarcerated at Robben Island entered there with as little as a std 2, but came out with at least a matric. Although also politically connected, most of the Robben Island prisoners went on to fill prominent positions in government and commerce.

This is in contrast to their warders who were content with the level of their education and did nothing to improve themselves during this period. 

By the choices we make in life, we are responsible for our own future, but we often blame others if things do not go our way. Without education in whatever form, we have no future. :Huh:

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tec0 (25-Jun-12)

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## tec0

Almost there but you forgot to factor in that new investments pulled out with the land reform as the main subject at hand thus no new money only more debts, for example Eskom's debts. No new training systems have been introduced in the last 10 years.  "Despite our new found internet technology"

Also factor in the there are more low paying jobs "not taxable jobs" then taxable jobs at the moment that increases loss. Then factor in that our Taxi organizations despite their illustrious revenue are also tax exempt so no income there… 

If you really start to factor everything in you will find that 2013 is going to be the start of the downhill race to total economical destruction.  And yet everything points to mismanagement.

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## Blurock

4.7 registered taxpayers out of a population of 50 million says it all. Of the 4.7 mil, a number of those registered earn less than the threshold amount and therefore pay little or no tax. I think it is safe to say that less than 4 million tax payers have to support a population of 50 million. 

With unbridled population growth (encouraged by the government), illegal immigrants flocking to South Africa by the millions and retiring intellectuals, this ratio can only worsen with dire consequences for our economy.

This situation is of course worsened by the flight of capital and lack of DFI (direct foreign investment) due to the ANC's financial policies and threats of nationalsation.  :Hmmm:

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tec0 (25-Jun-12)

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## vieome

The future of SA is going to like the all other liberated african countries.
This is the vision I have of the future.
<rant>
In 10 years!
All goverment departs willl start to collapse, there will be long ques and for things like passports and ID one will have to pay some sort of bribe. In the future there will be electricity and Fuel shortages. The rand will drop against all major currencys. BEE will be in the rate of 95% for management and this will really affect industry. An informal sector will develop with many side of the road businesses that dont pay taxs. A system of black markets will arise for fuel and forex, most of the black markets will be controlled by goverment ministers. 

To keep a hold on power the powers that be will in 10 years time start pushing for serious land reform and drop the policy of kill the farmer(conspiracy) to remove him from the land, . With the collapse of most industrys and a drop in tax revenue the MP will have to come up with new ways to line their corrupt pockets, and one way is to take land from farmers just before the harvest, MP in Zim made a fortune doing this. Then they will take industry and mining again all in the name of empowerment with the wool covering the fact that it is all theft greed, as the masses never get any.

The banking system will start to suffer, as many will take loans and never pay them back. 
The constituion will be changed to give the leader more power, and 3 terms or more. The press freedom will be totally gone. Goverment departs will baloon in size and govt will employ 70% of all the people employed in SA. 

It will take years to get a passport or ID when the govt systems collapse. Crime will increase 50 fold. As the crime increases there will be numerous police roadblocks called by the govt the banner will be to protect citizens, these road blocks will be really for collecting bribes a hidden road toll if you like. The roads will become pot holed. The quality of water will drop, hospitals will be a dangerous place to be, with lack of medicines. There will be outbreaks of dieases like cholera. 

So as a business man, what should you do to to keep the edge. Start investing in forex. Start investing in water purification, electric generators, electric invertors. Set up fuel holding tanks. 
Cosatu general-secretary Zwelinzima will start his own democratic party and become a serious threat to the ANC, perhaps with Julius as a side kick.

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## Dave A

> This is the vision I have of the future.
> <rant>
> In 10 years!


Some might argue a lot of that applies already  :Stick Out Tongue:

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## Phil Cooper

Argue?

Who would argue? All would concur!

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## Dave A

It's sure going to be interesting to see what comes out of the current ANC policy conference.

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## dfsa

> It's sure going to be interesting to see what comes out of the current ANC policy conference.


There is a massive power struggle. It will be interesting indeed. Zuma have stepped on a few toes lateley.

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## Blurock

The ANC is continuously looking at new ways to generate cash. They have drafted a raft of policy documents that call on mining firms to pay more to the state to help finance welfare spending. The proposals also advocate relying on state-owned enterprises to be engines of job creation and growth.

This is a government that relies (depend?) on disproportionate social spending for its popularity, and its starving for cash to maintain their socialist programmes. They are now trying to get their hands onto your pensions to invest in state owned or controlled enterprises which they can benefit from. The E-tolling fiasco is one such an example.

The ANC should be reminded of the 1980s famine in Etiopia. About 1million people died from famine due to their socialist policies, transformation and nationalisation of productive farms. This was exacerbated by drought and political turmoil.

"Nobody in his right mind invests in a country that expropriates investments". Felipe Calderon, Mexico. :Nono:

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## twinscythe12332

the overall management sucks, but incompetence by something so big often leaves opportunity for someone else.

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## Blurock

After the 1st and 2nd world wars, Germany was annihilated and had to rebuild their country from scratch. It took them only 20 years to become a major economic and industrial force in the world. East Germany was an economic disaster under communist rule until unification in 1990. The country, including East Germany is now a force in the world economy. (A good example and proof that communism does not work,  as in Cuba, Russia, North Korea, the previous Yugoslavia and others, where people are suffering under state control).

Japan was almost obliterated by the atomic bomb, but 20 years later they became the biggest economy in the world. This was all due to hard work, education and innovation. (..and open competition and transparency)

The ANC has been in power for almost 20 years. What have they achieved? Zumas government has been criticised for ineffective leadership in tackling a broken education system, rigid labour market and chronic unemployment which is eroding the countrys economic effectiveness.

The ANC is continuously looking at new ways to generate cash. They have drafted a raft of policy documents that call on mining firms to pay more to the state to help finance welfare spending. The proposals also advocate relying on state-owned enterprises to be engines of job creation and growth.
This is a government that relies (depend?) on disproportionate social spending for its popularity, and its starving for cash to maintain their socialist programmes. They are now trying to get their hands onto your pensions to invest in state owned or controlled enterprises which they can benefit from. The E-tolling fiasco is one such an example. 

The ANC should be reminded of the 1980s famine in Etiopia. About 1million people died from famine due to their socialist policies, transformation and nationalisation of productive farms. This was exacerbated by drought and political turmoil.

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## Citizen X

The Constitutional framework of land reform in South Africa.  In recent weeks we’ve seen the ANC speaking more and more about land reform. It’s noteworthy that this rhetoric comes in the aftermath of the Murray painting.
I’m totally lost about this concept of the second transition! When did the first transition end! I’m of the layperson’s opinion that if you have even 100 existing shacks, there can be no second transition. The Government does not have adequate processers in place to prevent corruption, nepotism and maladministration and/or swiftly deal with rogue elements in government.
1.      Section 25 of the Constitution of 1996 makes provision for land reform with compensation. Exactly who these poor and struggling people that will get this land is an enigma. My friend Frans, lives in the Informal settlement in Lenasia. He’s 75 years old. Will his name also be on this list! I can’t help but think at many rogue elements and people in government have already got their eyes on specific pieces of land. Now these mentioned people are not poor at all, in fact, money runs like water for them!
2.      The situation in Zimbabwe was a completely different scenario to the situation in South Africa
3.      One can never justify minority rule alternatively racial divide which precludes a citizen from voting. Ian smith’s regime was an oppressive one in which Black people were marginalised and oppressed. It can never be said that things were better under Ian Smith but it can be said that Mugabe by virtue of his actions is far worse than Ian Smith ever was. This planet has had many dictators. *The distinction between Mugabe and Hitler or Gadhafi  is that both Hitler and Gadafi brought economic relief and stability when they forcefully gained complete control of their countries! Mugabe butchered the economic stability of Zimbabwe.* Ian Smith was a brutal dictator but Mugabe is a far worse dictator! Mugabe promised democracy and 1 man 1 vote i.e majority rule. *Many argue that Mugabe has lost several elections but still holds on to power*
4.      It’s very ironic that Mugabe actually had several meetings with the British in which they signed agreement and agreed to forget the past and engage in reconciliation. When violent, involuntary land reform took place in Zimbabwe, it was mostly Mugabe’s relatives, friends and loyalists who benefited, not the poor!
5.      Under Apartheid forced removal of non whites occurred in the 60’s 70’s and 80’s. People’s land was taken from them and they were dumped into racially segregated areas.
6.      *Should our Government in a Constitutional democracy forcibly remove people from their land they will be no better than the apartheid government. Instead of focusing on nation building and giving people hop, it appear that the ANC is taking hope and peace of mind from especially white farmers.*

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## Dave A

> I’m totally lost about this concept of the second transition! When did the first transition end!


So is everyone else, it seems.

There seems to be some attempt to say phase one was a political transition, and this second phase will be a focus on an economic transition.

To my mind, it looks increasingly like yet another attempt to lose culpability for all the promised aspirations not delivered on as yet. The last thing the ANC needs is for a large portion of the electorate saying "you have failed me - let's try someone else."

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## MGM

The sad truth is, the majority of failed electorate will not vote for any opposition party. They will simply refrain, making their situation actually worse. But how do you get this across to them?

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## wynn

Don't vote the ANC loses 1 supporting vote!
Vote for someone else the ANC loses two supporting votes! because they now need to use 1 supporting vote to cancell out your lost vote.

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Blurock (02-Jul-12)

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## Justloadit

> Don't vote the ANC loses 1 supporting vote!
> Vote for someone else the ANC loses two supporting votes! because they now need to use 1 supporting vote to cancell out your lost vote.


Eish but this math is two deeficalt for me to undirstands.

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## Blurock

> Eish but this math is two deeficalt for me to undirstands.


Is that why the bulk of the population is kept illiterate? No school books, no teachers, no future. The government is filled with Dr Dolittle's. :Whistling:

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## twinscythe12332

I guess if you keep everyone stuck at one level, they'll be more controllable... Once you know how to swing one person's mind, the sheep like him will be just as easily swayed.
The ANC has been making promises by the boat-load... and we've all heard how they don't live up to it. So does that mean the other parties are making promises that are too realistic?

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## murdock

and all tax money seems to be wasted on...is fraud and corrution investigation...or setting up some form of investigation.

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## MGM

I think the opposition, especially the DA, is making huge inroads into the so-called "illiterate" communities. Remember, the illiterate community is there because of apartheid, initially. But 18 years down the line, no change-for-the-better has taken place. It actually got worse, in living standards, for the poor and even the so-called "middle class" community. 

We are not even half-way through this economic tsunami. Things are going to get tougher, and I think the so-called illiterate and middle class communities needs to take decisive action to stop the plundering of our assets by so-called "leaders". Once the so-called "illiterate" is liberated, we will either have a civil war or a democratic election, depends on the illiterate.

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## Blurock

> Remember, the illiterate community is there because of apartheid, initially. But 18 years down the line, no change-for-the-better has taken place. It actually got worse, in living standards, for the poor and even the so-called "middle class" community.


I have to disagree. The illiterate community is there because the cadres decided on "no education before liberation". Nobody can force you to learn if you do not want to.

The illiterate obviously does not have the same access to information such as in newspapers, books, news bulletins and other sources as the literate. They also do not have the same opportunities as the literate and educated and are therefore more succeptable to indoctrination and intimidation. 

The illiterate should study what happened in other communities that overcame diversity by hard work and learning. The Indian community find themselves at the top of the management chain and have educated as lawyers, doctors and astute business people. This after they came to these shores as indentured labourers with no future.

The Afrikaner community was devastated after the Boer war. The British army's scorched earth policy forced them off their farms to find work on the mines. The Great Depression and the "poor white" issue is well documented. These same people started Iscor, Eskom, FVB, KWV, the Rembrand group and others. They started co-ops to assist farmers to sell their produce. Education was important and was the key to job creation.

Our immigrant communities of Etiopians, Zimbabwians, Greeks, Portugese and Congolese are setting up shops and starting businesses from virtually nothing. They are sometimes forced to start over because locals burn down their businesses out of spite or genocide. They don't give up, but start over.

What is wrong with our people? Why do we grow up as beggars, thinking the world owes us a living? Have we no pride? Why do foreigners have to come here to show us how things should be done?  :Huh:

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## murdock

and the reality is...people would rather employ these people coming in from other countries...because they are prepared to WORK for a wage..

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## Dave A

> What is wrong with our people? Why do we grow up as beggars, thinking the world owes us a living? Have we no pride? Why do foreigners have to come here to show us how things should be done?


I would love to hear thoughts on that particular mindset challenge.

One of the things that strikes me - is it really unique? Genuine entrepreneurs have always been a minority in *any* society.
The second thing to point out is immigrants tend to be more entrepreneurial than average anyway. Which isn't really surprising - the mere act of picking up and moving to a different country is in itself pretty adventurous.

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## desA

"Who rules South Africa? - Pulling the strings in the battle for power", Martin Plaut & Paul Holden, Jonathan Ball Publishers, 2012.

Available in CNA & most bookstores. 

I'm in the early stages of the book, & already a fairly clear picture is emerging of the chaos around us. An excellent, although detailed, read.

To my perhaps simplistic mind, a civil war, or corrective coup, may be some of the ways forwards towards ridding SA of this scourge. Would that a decent, honest government step up to the plate & fulfill the dreams of SA's people. The post 1994 experiment with Democracy (African Socialism) has been a dismal failure.

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## murdock

if you keep giving...people will take...and when you change what you have been doing all along...how can you expect people to change their mindset...

when i grew up...i wanted something...i wash cars...deliver newspapers...pack bags at the supermarket...my kids on the other hand...want something...my ex wife has taught them to just put out their hand and expect...so when my daughter comes to me with a list of all the outstanding pocket money "i owe her" i ask her what she has done for me to deserve the pocket money...she tells me it is "her right" ...so you know what i told her....i phone her the other at 10 am...to ask her what she is doing about finding a job...she is still in bed sleeping...but i must still pay maintenance...yeah right.

my point is you give give give...dont expect them to work for stuff...lots of fathers/parents who have had it tough are guilty of giving their kids too much (because they battled when they were young and dont want their kids to battle) create the lazy monster they turn into...a little hard work never killed anyone..

like this incident where they were considering a R20 levy that everyone had to pay for services...it was thown out.

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## Blurock

I agree with Murdock. Our work ethic is very low. It starts with discipline. There can be no love without discipline. Teach your kids when they are young. Don't wait until they leave school and then try to change their ways.

I have recently fired a client due to potential reputation risk. These guys were too lazy to work. They did not even make their own phone calls. Someone else had to make the call and then hand them the phone while the person on the other side was waiting. They more than often pitched up for work at 9 or 10 am while the staff had to let themselves in at 7am. :Yawn:

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