# Social Category > General Chat Forum >  Logic, math & statistics puzzle...that holds some wonderful lessons!

## adrianh

I have some numbers 2 4 6 and I would like for you to work out what is the rule for the next numbers.

Now, you can take 20 shots a guessing a number and I will tell you whether your guess fits the rule or not. Once 20 guesses have been used up, you have to tell me what the rule is.

Ok, have a go. Remember that there are only 20 chances to work out what the rule is so don't waste them. Don't take multiple guesses because I will only answer one guess at a time. Don't take a guess before you've read my reply to a guess.

Anybody....first guess

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## IanF

10

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## Houses4Rent

10 works, but 8 can also work depending on which rule/pattern is applied.

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## wynn

2 4 7 if you are counting up
2 4 5 if you are counting down
10 if you are using Fibonacci
8 if you are counting up in twos

'8 who do we appreciate' if you are singing team songs.

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## adrianh

Like I said, I will only answer one guess and then the next.

1. IanF - 10 - Fits rule.

19 tests left to determine the rule after the 20th test.

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## Mike C

> Like I said, I will only answer one guess and then the next.
> 
> 1. IanF - 10 - Fits rule.
> 
> 19 tests left to determine the rule after the 20th test.


next number after 10 is 16

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## adrianh

1. IanF   - 10 - Fits rule.
2. MikeC - 16 - Fits rule.

18 tests left!

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## sterne.law@gmail.com

The rule is that the last number is added to the number prior thereto (second last number) to give you the next number in the sequence

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## adrianh

I cannot comment on Anthony's post because the rules of the game states that you will be given 20 guesses (tests) and then only be asked to define the rule.

(You are of course free to discuss possible rules amongst yourselves)

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## sterne.law@gmail.com

:Mad: 
That's not fair. APPEAL APPEAL
 :Mad:  :Oops:  :Mad:

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## IanF

26
For  the strict rule master!

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## wynn

12 if you add them all together
-8 if you subtract them from one another (2-4-6=-8)

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## adrianh

1. IanF - 10 - Fits rule.
2. MikeC - 16 - Fits rule.
3. IanF - 26 - Fits rule.

 17 tests left! 

@wynn - Do you want to submit a test? If so - give me one number!

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## Marq

13

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## adrianh

1. IanF - 10 - Fits rule.
 2. MikeC - 16 - Fits rule.
3. IanF - 26 - Fits rule.
4. Marg- 13 - Fits rule.

 16 tests left!

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## vieome

99

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## adrianh

1. IanF - 10 - Fits rule.
2. MikeC - 16 - Fits rule.
3. IanF - 26 - Fits rule.
4. Marg- 13 - Fits rule.
5. Vieome- 99 - Fits rule.


 15 tests left!

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## Houses4Rent

I am happy with 10 and 16 and 26, but anything after that is beyond me as I expected 42

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## IanF

17

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## adrianh

1. IanF - 10 - Fits rule.
2. MikeC - 16 - Fits rule.
3. IanF - 26 - Fits rule.
4. Marg- 13 - Fits rule.
5. Vieome- 99 - Fits rule.
6. IanF - 17 - Fits rule.


14 tests left!

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## sterne.law@gmail.com

31

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## adrianh

1. IanF - 10 - Fits rule.
2. MikeC - 16 - Fits rule.
3. IanF - 26 - Fits rule.
4. Marg- 13 - Fits rule.
5. Vieome- 99 - Fits rule.
6. IanF - 17 - Fits rule.
7. Anthony - 31 - Fits rule.

13 tests left!

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## IanF

There is one rule and that is there are no rules!

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## vieome

Perhaps that is the lesson we tend to look for rules and patterns where non exist.

No 7

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## Mike C

I agree veiome - but just in case - we need to find the one the follows 6.  We know that 10 fits the rule, but we might have skipped some.
I guess 8

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## adrianh

1. IanF - 10 - Fits rule.
2. MikeC - 16 - Fits rule.
3. IanF - 26 - Fits rule.
4. Marg- 13 - Fits rule.
5. Vieome- 99 - Fits rule.
6. IanF - 17 - Fits rule.
7. Anthony - 31 - Fits rule.
8. Vieome- 7 - Fits rule.
9. MikeC - 8 - Fits rule.

11 tests left!

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## Marq

How about zero.

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## adrianh

1. IanF - 10 - Fits rule.
2. MikeC - 16 - Fits rule.
3. IanF - 26 - Fits rule.
4. Marg- 13 - Fits rule.
5. Vieome- 99 - Fits rule.
6. IanF - 17 - Fits rule.
7. Anthony - 31 - Fits rule.
8. Vieome- 7 - Fits rule.
9. MikeC - 8 - Fits rule.
10. Marg- 0 - Does NOT fit rule.

10 tests left!

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## Christel

48

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## wynn

27

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## Mike C

(for discussion purposes)

So we have the following sequence fitting the "rule" so far.
2,4,6,7,8,10,13,16,17,26,31,99

The only one that does not fit the rule so far is 0

Are we looking at a "natural number" rule perhaps?

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## HR Solutions

18 .... "ascending"

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## adrianh

Is 18 a guess?

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## Christel

12

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## adrianh

1. IanF - 10 - Fits rule.
2. MikeC - 16 - Fits rule.
3. IanF - 26 - Fits rule.
4. Marg- 13 - Fits rule.
5. Vieome- 99 - Fits rule.
6. IanF - 17 - Fits rule.
7. Anthony - 31 - Fits rule.
8. Vieome- 7 - Fits rule.
9. MikeC - 8 - Fits rule.
10. Marg- 0 - Does NOT fit rule.
11. Christel - 48 Fits rule.
12. Wynn - 27 Fits rule.
13. Christel- 12 Fits rule.

7 tests left!

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## HR Solutions

> Is 18 a guess?



Yes


And 35

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## vieome

67

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## adrianh

1. IanF - 10 - Fits rule.
2. MikeC - 16 - Fits rule.
3. IanF - 26 - Fits rule.
4. Marg- 13 - Fits rule.
5. Vieome- 99 - Fits rule.
6. IanF - 17 - Fits rule.
7. Anthony - 31 - Fits rule.
8. Vieome- 7 - Fits rule.
9. MikeC - 8 - Fits rule.
10. Marg- 0 - Does NOT fit rule.
11. Christel - 48 Fits rule.
12. Wynn - 27 Fits rule.
13. Christel- 12 Fits rule.
14. HR - 18- Fits rule.
15. HR - 35- Fits rule.
16. Vieome- 67 - Fits rule.

4 tests left!

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## HR Solutions

1689

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## HR Solutions

1245987

ie one million two hundred and forty five nine hundred and eighty seven

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## adrianh

1. IanF - 10 - Fits rule.
2. MikeC - 16 - Fits rule.
3. IanF - 26 - Fits rule.
4. Marg- 13 - Fits rule.
5. Vieome- 99 - Fits rule.
6. IanF - 17 - Fits rule.
7. Anthony - 31 - Fits rule.
8. Vieome- 7 - Fits rule.
9. MikeC - 8 - Fits rule.
10. Marg- 0 - Does NOT fit rule.
11. Christel - 48 Fits rule.
12. Wynn - 27 Fits rule.
13. Christel- 12 Fits rule.
14. HR - 18- Fits rule.
15. HR - 35- Fits rule.
16. Vieome- 67 - Fits rule.
17. HR - 1689- Fits rule.
18. HR - 1245987- Fits rule.

2 tests left.

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## HR Solutions

Aha !

3895621 (million)

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## IanF

-3938 (3938 is the number of posts Adrian has at present)

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## Christel

246

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## adrianh

1. IanF - 10 - Fits rule.
2. MikeC - 16 - Fits rule.
3. IanF - 26 - Fits rule.
4. Marg- 13 - Fits rule.
5. Vieome- 99 - Fits rule.
6. IanF - 17 - Fits rule.
7. Anthony - 31 - Fits rule.
8. Vieome- 7 - Fits rule.
9. MikeC - 8 - Fits rule.
10. Marg- 0 - Does NOT fit rule.
11. Christel - 48 Fits rule.
12. Wynn - 27 Fits rule.
13. Christel- 12 Fits rule.
14. HR - 18- Fits rule.
15. HR - 35- Fits rule.
16. Vieome- 67 - Fits rule.
17. HR - 1689- Fits rule.
18. HR - 1245987 - Fits rule.
19. HR - 3895621 - Fits rule.
20. IanF - -3938 - Does NOT fit rule.
21. Christel- 246 Fits rule.

Ok, so now you've carried 21 experiments to determine what my rule is. Lets get some rules together, say 10 rules. Once we have the 10 rules we analyse the results and the methods used to reach those conclusions.

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## Christel

The rule is that the numbers chosen by Adrian (2,4,6) was just to get us thinking... but the answer is any number, except for a zero and not a negative number.

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## HR Solutions

Rule is ascending (increasing numbers)

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## adrianh

Rules.... when we've got 10 then we talk!

1. Christel - The rule is that the numbers chosen by Adrian (2,4,6) was just to get us thinking... but the answer is any number, except for a zero and not a negative number.

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## HR Solutions

Do not display a "verification bias" and do not use verification as the only strategy !

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## Christel

Ok, here is the rule that fits for me:

Any number raised to the power of "one", providing that the answer must be positive and cannot equal the number 0.  

Therefore, Adrian could have picked any number to start off with, but he chose 2, 4, 6 to get us thinking and to confuse some of us (like me).

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## pmbguy

What's going on?

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## vieome

Rule : We hold on to our own truths even if it is not based in fact.

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## adrianh

Rules.... when we've got 10 then we talk!

1. Christel - The rule is that the numbers chosen by Adrian (2,4,6) was just to get us thinking... but the answer is any number, except for a zero and not a negative number. 
2. HR - Rule is ascending (increasing numbers)

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## Christel

> What's going on?


    is this a rule or a discussion point?

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adrianh (19-Jun-14)

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## adrianh

> Rule : We hold on to our own truths even if it is not based in fact.


Although this might be a "truth" rather than a rule it does not answer the question posed in the first place using mathematics therefore it cannot be included.

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## HR Solutions

And who will be satisfied with the hypothesis ?

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## adrianh

Once we have a couple of thoughts we will discuss the experiment.

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## Mike C

One of the rules could be any number greater than 6

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## Christel

> One of the rules could be any number greater than 6


on this note... we never asked if 1, 3 and 5 could be possible answers?

if yes, then  your rule Mike is, sorry.... not correct...

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## Mike C

> on this note... we never asked if 1, 3 and 5 could be possible answers?
> 
> if yes, then  your rule Mike is, sorry.... not correct...


Hi Christel - I agree with you, so I looked at the original posting before suggesting the rule.



> I have some numbers 2 4 6 and I would like for you to work out what is the rule for the next numbers.


Next numbers implies what follows ...  :Confused: 

But I suppose that the next numbers could be 1 3 and 5 - in which case yours would be more likely to be right.

Let's see if Adrianh accepts mine as one of the 10 possible rules

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## Christel

Yes, you're right, sorry. :EEK!:   Was being distracted with the "0" that someone suggested and the negative amounts.... then I thought but what about 1 and 3 and 5...?

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## Mike C

Also no one suggested fractions!   :Oops:

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## IanF

Adrian just needs a series of random numbers for quoting the tirekickers who ask for prices.

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## Marq

Any positive number

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## Christel

Adrian... where are you...?  we have 6 possible rules so far... 4 to go.... BUT... can't we adjust "your" rules so that we can get the answer/explanation now... before the weekend starts...

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## vieome

> 1. IanF - 10 - Fits rule.
> 2. MikeC - 16 - Fits rule.
> 3. IanF - 26 - Fits rule.
> 4. Marg- 13 - Fits rule.
> 5. Vieome- 99 - Fits rule.
> 6. IanF - 17 - Fits rule.
> 7. Anthony - 31 - Fits rule.
> 8. Vieome- 7 - Fits rule.
> 9. MikeC - 8 - Fits rule.
> ...


All the numbers come after 6

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## adrianh

I've had a hell of a couple of days.

Question

I have some numbers 2 4 6 and I would like for you to work out what is the rule for the next numbers.

Tests

1. IanF - 10 - Fits rule.
 2. MikeC - 16 - Fits rule.
 3. IanF - 26 - Fits rule.
 4. Marg- 13 - Fits rule.
 5. Vieome- 99 - Fits rule.
 6. IanF - 17 - Fits rule.
 7. Anthony - 31 - Fits rule.
 8. Vieome- 7 - Fits rule.
 9. MikeC - 8 - Fits rule.
 10. Marg- 0 - Does NOT fit rule.
 11. Christel - 48 Fits rule.
 12. Wynn - 27 Fits rule.
 13. Christel- 12 Fits rule.
 14. HR - 18- Fits rule.
 15. HR - 35- Fits rule.
 16. Vieome- 67 - Fits rule.
 17. HR - 1689- Fits rule.
 18. HR - 1245987 - Fits rule.
 19. HR - 3895621 - Fits rule.
 20. IanF - -3938 - Does NOT fit rule.
 21. Christel- 246 Fits rule.

Rules
-
1. Christel - The rule is that the numbers chosen by Adrian (2,4,6) was just to get us thinking... but the answer is any number, except for a zero and not a negative number. 
2. HR - Rule is ascending (increasing numbers) 
3. MikeC -One of the rules could be any number greater than 6 
4 - Marq - Any positive number 

Ok, the rule is: Any number after 6.

Lets look at the tests
----
1. Most people went looking for sequences higher than 6..
Why did you think that the number should be higher than 6...because the sequenced numbers prompted you to do so.
If I possed the sequence as 6 4 2 I bet that most people would have looed for number lower than 2.

2. A lot of tests seemed to be purely random - Why?

3. Christel was very quick to look at the situation in reverse.
Most people look for a pattern because we are programmed to do so, very few people start with an infinite date set and then systematically eliminate very large data sets working towards smaller sets.

4. We assume that the data 2, 4, 6 are related to one another in some way (it could simply have ben 2 eggs, 4 wheel and 6 cigarettes, for no reason at all.

5. Our pattern recognition software takes precedence and try to project the data forward.
This has very interesting consequences that marketers use...lets say a TV ad said that a chocolate bar cost R2, 3 years ago, R4 2 years ago and R6 last year. We would have predicted the price to be R8 this year, for no other reason than it following a pattern. He now tells you that the chocolate bar is on special and only costs R7. Many people would see this as a bargain even though he never said that it should cost R8, we simply projected the number.

6. Making rules based of small data sets is very dangerous. An economist would use a small data set to project forward creating a pattern where there is none.

7. I think that we have to be very careful of our pattern recognition software because it kicks in automatically and often leads us up the garden path.

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## Houses4Rent

We are looking for inteligent rules, any number >6 is not intelligent at all. What has this to do with logic, math etc? Not much in my opinion.

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## adrianh

hmmm....I'll say this much, I will hire Christel in a flash...you, not a chance, your mind is far too narrow!

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## Houses4Rent

I am not for hire.

Christel, pick your number and Adrian will hire you for that number.

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## adrianh

Didn't you find the exercise interesting at all?

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## Houses4Rent

I did, but the outcome/rule was unchallenging. Was there any reason to insult me (without even knowing me) just because I voiced my opinion?

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## adrianh

I don't believe that I insulted you, I said that I think that your thinking is narrow-minded, that is not an insult, it is simply my view of how you think. Narrow-mindedness is a function of specialization, you are probably a highly specialized engineer that is extremely good at what you do. I think very broad-mindedly but I am totally non-specialized.

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## vieome

> All the numbers come after 6


 I was on the right track. 








> hmmm....I'll say this much, I will hire Christel in a flash...you, not a chance, your mind is far too narrow!


Could such a response be because of the very thing the exercise was pointing out, when peoples thoughts align with our own we are like yes, good thinker, when not, we engage pattern software thinking and label to it. 




> 7. I think that we have to be very careful of our pattern recognition software because it kicks in automatically and often leads us up the garden path.

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## Houses4Rent

> I don't believe that I insulted you, I said that I think that your thinking is narrow-minded, that is not an insult, it is simply my view of how you think. Narrow-mindedness is a function of specialization, you are probably a highly specialized engineer that is extremely good at what you do. I think very broad-mindedly but I am totally non-specialized.


Its an insult to me and judging from vioeme's comment s/he agrees to a degree.
If I would be a narrow minded specialised engineer I would not have changed my career 180 degrees either. Even my engineering education was very broad based which made me a generalist and I did another degree on top in Supply Chain. As I said you have no clue about me so you cannot judge me the way you did. There was and is no need to judge either.
Mayeb you should look at your motto "You cannot depend on your eyes if your imagination is out of focus  and live by it.

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## adrianh

Oh for f*ck sake, are you 10 years old, don't you have anything better to do with your time than whinge about what I think. 

Ok, I am sorry that you do not agree with me when I say that I think you are narrow-minded. - Are you happy now, I apologized!

The thread is not about you anyway, it is about how our minds work under certain circumstances. You don't have to agree, disagree or even care about the thread but at least stick to the damn thing without getting your tits in a knot about bullcrap!

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## adrianh

You know, I did learn something from this lot; I shouldn't think that because I found something that I read interesting that anybody else will look at it as merely a curiosity but rather that they will look at it as being either an insult to their intelligence or an ego trip on my part.

Anyway, take it, leave it, its your choice, I just thought that it was interesting.

Mr Houses4Rent - I apologize for insulting you and I hope that you have a wonderful life.
vieome - eish....

I have nothing further to say about this thread!

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## vieome

Watch from 4 minutes on

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## Marq

Well I found it interesting.

I saw a few more common human type traits here:-
People do not read questions properly - probably glance through words and make up own conclusions/assumptions as to what is being said.Guess work is a big factor in answering something that is not clear to what the answer could be.When the answer is made obvious and is simple, some people get upset, throw accusations and try and externalise something that actually is an internal problem -Sort of like the blame game.

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## HR Solutions

I got it right away ............ I didn't guess ........... am I also narrow minded ? :Taz:  :Slayer: 

No seriously - Im just trying to put light on the situation.  H4R ..... don't worry about Adrian ...... he's a poepal  :Wink:  .. but don't think he meant any harm by it.

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## Christel

I've also found this thread interesting... maybe you can throw in something like this again Adrian?  
I also enjoy all the comments.   Makes me laugh - I also enjoyed the Horse Racing tipster thread... ha ha ha!!
It's like Adrian said, it's only his opinion and you don't have to live by it.  Read it, make a note if you want, but move on.  I did not see his comment as an insult.

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## adrianh

Another lesson of course is to never speak early on a Monday morning and of course not to get annoyed by people.

I was telling my brother about this incident and he said a wonderful thing; "One should not waste too much energy on people who haven't moved beyond thinking with their egos"

The reason the puzzle caught my attention is because I fell into the exact same trap, so did my very bright daughter and very bright wife. The only person that had a totally different strategy was my GP (We are good friends and speak about a lot of interesting stuff) I read two very interesting books written by Dan Ariely "Predictably Irrational" and "The upside of irrationality" It clearly show how we think that we are logical but how we act irrationally. Our programming seems to make most of us act irrationally in very similar ways. Good marketers know this and use it without us knowing it. It's not subliminal messages or anything like that, it is really how we say one thing but do something else because our conscious evaluation of a situation is simply worlds apart from our subconscious evaluation. Think about love; we have this ideal in our conscious minds yet we fall in love with a person for totally different reasons and even totally different looks. Another interesting statement that people sometimes make is: "I love him but I do not like him"...hmmm seems two brains, subconscious and conscious are on two different wavelengths.

I am totally fascinated by this sort of thing and I've read many books about the way we think we think. The numbers puzzle comes from a book that I am currently reading called "The art of thinking clearly" by Rolf Dobelli. It is a very small white book available from Exclusives for about R200. The guy writes in a very concise way and shows in 99 short essays how our thinking machines are programmed badly. The reason for this is probably because our programming is done socially and we simply accept thought patterns that the masses use simply because we don't think about how we think. 

I am very aware of my own thought patterns and question them all the time. I do this because I've battled with my brain all my life so I've had to learn how the silly thing works...doesn't work most of the time.

You should look up TED talks on TED.com  and watch lots of the talks especially Dan Ariely and Sir Kenneth Robinson and if you want to totally blow your mind and see how most of us are predictably programmed the watch this video:

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## vieome

I agree 100%. It is interesting to know how the brain and mind works.


(According to Google)
The 2-4-6 task shows us our 

*Confirmation bias*  
The tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. In addition, individuals may discredit information that does not support their views.[26] The confirmation bias is related to the concept of cognitive dissonance. Whereby, individuals may reduce inconsistency by searching for information which re-confirms their views (Jermias, 2001, p. 146).[27]

It is a *confirmation bias* that makes us label someone who does not get a joke we tell as having no sense of humor. 

Reality itself is a mental construction based on communication, and our social nature dictates that we surround ourselves with people who validate our point of view.

The people who disagree with us, are not necessary our enemies, and could serve us better by challenging our preconceptions.

It is simply my interest in the Brain and Mind that makes me want to discuss such cognitive bias, as they affect us daily, however I do understand, that in a social context, People will rise to defend those they rub post with daily. My point was simply just because we become aware of a bias, doe not mean we automatically rise above it. 

Daniel Kahneman author of "Thinking, Fast and Slow" which deals with cognitive biases tells us, " Just because I have written on, and developed this understanding of our thinking, I am still fail to over rule my own biases".

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## adrianh

I am sometimes able to catch myself when I fall into these thinking traps and I try and avoid them. We are hardly ever critical of our own thinking and it is difficult to do if we come up against our own egos. What I mean is this; when we look at our own performance in business and it is bad we tend to feel depressed and worthless yet the underlying problem is most often a poor understanding of what it takes to do business. By the same token we also feel like superheroes when things go well yet we do not check to make sure that it is simply due to blind luck.

I am able to think analytically and logically but my biggest failing is that I have ZERO EQ. My wife and kids are sort of used to it but it gets on their nerves sometimes. It just p1$$es the rest of the world off. I've never had any understanding whatsoever of the emotional dance that is played by people. 

Maybe we should start an EQ thread and talk about such things. When the wife asks me what the food is like I have been told that "k@k" is not the right answer :-) or the answer to the question "Would you like coffee?" is not "Yes" but rather "Yes please" ...I've learned over the years that "Yes dear" is often a good answer :-) But seriously, there is a lot to be said for reaching people via EQ because we all (me included) will happily cut off our own (logical) noses if we think/feel that the other persons EQ/towards us is off. I find it difficult to do business with people when I think that they are a$$holes. My thinking that they are a$$holes is 90% of the time on a sort of warped EQ level. Think about it, somebody gets the better of you in a deal once and you vow never to do business with them again (The right answer would be to make sure that you have all the bases covered no matter who you do business with) It's extremely hard to operate on a balanced IQ/EQ level. If you operate purely on an IQ level with no EQ then you are considered to be a psychopath (which many successful people are) but if you are too emotional then it is also no good. Where does the balance lie?

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## HR Solutions

Yep Adrian - with todays generation EQ is very important in business.  The way the younger generation look at things sometimes is VERY different to old school, incentives are different etc etc- every young person looks at the job differently with a total different EQ and its up to management to handle them accordingly.

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