# Social Category > South African Politics Forum >  Who do you think will be next president of the ANC?

## duncan drennan

So who do you think will be the next president of the ANC? Not who you want, but who do you think is the most likely to become the next president of the ANC?

Oh, and who else should I add to the list?

----------


## Dave A

Geez. Talk about skipping the easy ones.

Looking from the outside it would look like JZ is the front-runner. But is there a possibility of a "compromise" candidate making the running...

An interesting list of possibles you've got there Mr. Drennan.

----------


## duncan drennan

> An interesting list of possibles you've got there Mr. Drennan.


Anyone I've missed?

I'm still struggling to decide who my money is on. Maybe we should set up a kitty  :Wink:

----------


## Dave A

I'm trying to think of people with demonstrated strong influence within the party...
A real wild card - Trevor Manuel? I'm not sure he'd take the nomination though even if it came.

----------


## stephanfx

To be honest, I actually hope TS makes it, I really think that he might be able to make a positive contribution to this country, especially for 2010.

----------


## duncan drennan

Interesting perspective on the current president Ã¢â¬â I have no idea. Any thoughts on this article?




> NiccolÃÂ² Machiavelli observed, "a truly great man is ever the same under all circumstances; and if his fortune varies, exalting him at one moment and oppressing him at another, he himself never varies, but always preserves a firm courage, which is so closely interwoven with his character that every one can readily see that the fickleness of fortune has no power over him."
> 
> "The conduct of weak men" Machiavelli continued, "is very different. Made vain and intoxicated by good fortune, they attribute their success to merits which they do not possess, and this makes them odious and insupportable to all around them. And when they have afterwards to meet a reverse of fortune, they quickly fall into the other extreme, and become abject and vile."
> 
> South Africa's shifting of power relations in the early to mid-1990s provides ample support for the truth of this observation. For instance, there are numerous accounts of how Mbeki changed after coming into power.
> 
> Full story on MoneyWeb

----------


## Dave A

Quite a sharp article - in more ways than one.



> As white South Africa lost power between 1992 and 1996 one could witness the reverse happening, with many once vain individuals becoming vile. There were numerous NP politicians who - having dutifully implemented apartheid in the name of white survival - joined a black nationalist ANC. _There were also members of the old English establishment who made the strange journey from lording it over the liberation movements, when they were banned or in opposition, to cravenly defending the actions of the ANC in power_.


Aint that the truth. One person who has really stood out from the crowd for sticking to principle in this transition though is Desmond Tutu.



> If and when Mbeki's rivals for the ANC presidency finally declare themselves, it is not sufficient - in judging their fitness for office - to ask who they are, or how they have conducted themselves in the past. A further important question is whether they are likely to be changed by _the immense power that will fall into their possession_.


Oops!

----------


## Dave A

Are we seeing the start of some decidedly undemocratic tactics here? There seems to be a bit of a stir going on about assassination attempts, alleged overseas funding, and then this comment...



> Intelligence Minister Ronnie Kasrils has denied that the report was the work of his agencies, including the National Intelligence Agency, the Independent said. Kasrils warned that "sinister elements" might try to exploit the current political climate in South Africa.
> from M&G here


Current political climate? Ronnie seems to think we're at a delicate point, by the sounds of things.

----------


## stephanfx

Heard this morning on Morning Live about a top secret report about Angola and Lybian leaders funding Jacob Zuma to overthrow Mbeki. If this is the case, Jacob Zuma is really in the soup.

----------


## Dave A

I'm having trouble buying that - I just don't see Angola's or Libya's motivation in getting involved in something like that for starters.

This makes it likely that there has been some conjuring going on - and the big question is why?

----------


## stephanfx

I also thought about this maybe just being a ploy to discredited Zuma in the ANC... I don't know much about politics, but it looks like Zuma is now in for round two (Round one being the corruption scandal).

----------


## duncan drennan

Is Sexwale the ideal "compromise candidate"?




> Tokyo Sexwale may prove not to be the last word on the subject; it is still entirely plausible that someone else will appear from the smoke and mirrors that constitute the unwritten lore of the ANCÃ¢â¬â¢s culture of leadership selection. I can think of three very obvious potential candidates whose credentials match or better those of Sexwale. One has the initials Ã¢â¬ÅCRÃ¢â¬Â and the other two Ã¢â¬ÅTMÃ¢â¬Â (and neither is the current president).
> 
> --
> 
> Indeed, it is precisely because he [Sexwale] would represent such a breath of fresh air compared to the current leaderÃ¢â¬â¢s neurotic approach, and its knock-on effect on the style of government, that many will support him. 
> 
> --
> 
> Zuma will not be the next president because the establishment simply will not countenance it. Mbeki will respect the constitutional two-term limit, and once the threat of a Zuma presidency (of the ANC and thence the country) is finally put to sleep, the one pragmatic justification for him remaining president of the ANC will thankfully dissipate.
> ...

----------


## Dave A

Reading the article, we might be missing two TM's in that poll.

----------


## duncan drennan

> Reading the article, we might be missing two TM's in that poll.


But who are they??

----------


## Dave A

Trevor Manuel for one.

Somehow I don't think the other would be Tim Modise...

----------


## Dave A

Another article from M&G adding grist to the mill.



> South African President Thabo Mbeki is facing mounting threats to his widely perceived plan to retain influence after he stands down as head of state.
> 
> The presidential succession debate has already plunged the African National Congress (ANC) into some of its worst factional turmoil since it led South Africa from apartheid to multiracial elections in 1994.
> 
> Now Mbeki -- accused by critics of promoting big business at the expense of the poor -- faces a direct challenge from provincial ANC branches pushing to remove him from the party's leadership race.
> 
> South Africa's Constitution forbids Mbeki from serving as president for a third term when his current stint ends in 2009.
> 
> But many political analysts believe he will go for a new term to remain head of the ANC at its congress in December.
> ...


And near the end of the article



> Mbeki's critics accuse him of undermining democracy by personally appointing provincial premiers, a view shared by Sipho Seepe, a director of the Graduate Institute of Management and Technology.
> 
> But Seepe says the struggle between the methodical Mbeki and Zuma, a man who is banking on grassroots support, is not really about democracy. Rather, it highlights a political problem in the country 13 years after its first all-race elections.
> 
> "People back politicians because they like them not because they have the qualifications. South African politics need to evolve into a merit system."
> 
> The latest party manoeuvring could open the door for a compromise candidate to lead the ANC with former political prisoner and multimillionaire businessman Tokyo Sexwale saying he could be a contender.
> full story from M&G here

----------


## Debbiedle

My question is whether this poll result shows a wish list rather than a real contender?  I personally think Sexwale is a VERY viable candidate from a business perspective?

----------


## duncan drennan

> My question is whether this poll result shows a wish list rather than a real contender?  I personally think Sexwale is a VERY viable candidate from a business perspective?


I think the voting would show that a lot of people visiting here think the same way.

What I was trying to get at (originally) was who people think is _most likely_ to be the next ANC president.

----------


## Dave A

And my vote, for the time being, stays firmly in my pocket - because at this point I've got absolutely no idea.

----------


## duncan drennan

> And my vote, for the time being, stays firmly in my pocket - because at this point I've got absolutely no idea.


Just like the rest of the nation.....

----------


## duncan drennan

When will the nominations be made?

----------


## Ann Williams

I've polled for our erstwhile former health minister.... Not because she is my ideal candidate (I would like to see our current Education minister in the top sport personally), but because I think she would make a great puppet for Mbeki who can stay in the background for another four years and then go for the top job again - all the while still keeping things firmly under control. :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

----------


## duncan drennan

Well, Thabs has thrown his hat into the ring this weekend, which has confirmed the whisperings,




> But he said on Saturday he could stand for leader of the ANC if the party asked, a move that would split power between the presidency and the party for the first time, and give Mbeki a major say in how South Africa is run for years to come.
> 
> "Mbeki throws his hat into the ring," the Sunday Independent newspaper said, noting that the succession battle is now wide open with at least two other candidates -- ANC deputy president Jacob Zuma and politician-turned-tycoon Tokyo Sexwale -- already openly campaigning for the job.
> 
> Full story on M&G Online

----------


## duncan drennan

Now we have rumours of both Mbeki and Zuma offering Sexwale a place as the deputy president, but I think more important is that there might be a shift within the ANC to get away from a divided party. Who knows...December is coming...




> Presidential hopeful Tokyo Sexwale’s last-minute campaign in the succession race is gaining momentum and is said to be rattling both the Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma camps, which are preparing to barter with Sexwale.
> 
> With the formal nomination process that opened this week, all three candidates are seeing shifts in their support. Mbeki’s support in the ANC has dwindled, say sources in the Sexwale camp, as a result of “strategic blunders”, such as the suspension of National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) head Vusi Pikoli.
> 
> Zuma, although seemingly favoured by the membership audit of the party, is bound to be affected by the judgement in the Constitutional Court against his former financial adviser, Schabir Shaik. The NPA says the judgement clears one more hurdle in its path to prosecuting Zuma.
> 
> Sources in the Sexwale camp say talks are taking place between Sexwale and members of both the Mbeki and Zuma camps, with both offering him the position of deputy president.
> 
> 
> ...

----------


## Dave A

Do political marriages involve _lebola_?

----------


## duncan drennan

Yes, but maybe a better term would be _rollover_ _rolova_

----------


## Marq

> Do political marriages involve lebola?


I would guess yes, only it involves Pigs with wings instead of cows. :Whistling:

----------


## Marq

I think you should open the poll up to allow for other options.

I can think of two guys off hand that are up for promotion - Truman Prince and Robert McBride. Then there's the Drunk Judge oh and then there's also Judge Hlope - been given the thumbs up by his peers and what about Terror - he must have an in there.

Long odds I know but a good bookie would look at them.

A while back (month or so) there was clairvoyant on TV telling us that the new leader would come out of the rank and file. Not currently known he will make his mark as a voice for the people and will be a strong well balanced individual who will sort this political stuff out for once and for all. 

My votes for him!

----------


## Dave A

Given the apparent polarisation within the party, the prospects for a compromise candidate are probably better than usual.

I can see lots more news on this over the coming weeks.

----------


## duncan drennan

Nominations are starting to pop up now, and it seems the dark horse is receiving all the attention....




> Cyril Ramaphosa has been formally nominated to lead the African National Congress, media reports said on Monday -- though the businessman has maintained he is not interested in the position.
> 
> Full article on M&G Online

----------


## Dave A

The big question - will he accept the nomination?

----------


## duncan drennan

Yes, the first hurdle that would need to be overcome. I've been thinking about it a bit, and there is a possibility that he is following the traditional ANC protocol. No rallying, just let the people speak. It may be a good strategy. We'll know in December.

What is quite interesting is if we cast our minds back to the 1997 ANC elections...it was Thabo vs Cyril, I think. What will happen this time?

----------


## duncan drennan

I quite liked today's Zapiro.

----------


## Dave A

That is sooo funny.

What about Tokyo? How would you frame his "run"?

----------


## duncan drennan

One man band?

So what would that make it, "See Tokyo run....see him run"

----------


## Dave A

It's funny in a way. When I think of my association life, it was when I stopped pursuing the top elected positions that they started coming to me. I guess you have to make some noise to get noticed in the lower ranks, but once you get to the upper echelons, it's best to wait until you're pushed forward.

----------


## Dave A

So! Jacob Zuma seems to be in pole position.

----------


## Dave A

Mail & Guardian Online have put together a special ANC conference page here.

Quite extraordinary what is going on in Polokwane right now.

----------

