# Social Category > South African Politics Forum >  What is Mugabe's problem?

## Dave A

I know we are a South African site and I've avoided getting sucked into Zimbabwe issues, but this is ridiculous.

Who has ever heard of holding an election but there is no requirement to declare the result? What the heck is the purpose of holding elections in the first place?

So what if he lost the election. He's 84 for goodness sake. He should be looking to retire and enjoy his loot.

What is Robert Mugabe's problem?

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## Faan

It could be that he will stand trial for crime against humanity and that has to be avoided.

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## Dave A

> South African President Thabo Mbeki said on Saturday there was "no crisis" in Zimbabwe after holding his first face-to-face talks with Robert Mugabe since the country's disputed March 29 elections.
> 
> Mbeki, who stopped in Harare on his way to join southern African leaders in Zambia for an emergency meeting on Zimbabwe, said people should wait for the election commission to announce the long-awaited presidential result.
> 
> "There has been a natural process taking place and we are all awaiting the ZEC (Zimbabwe Electoral Commission) to announce the results and there is also the matter of the court case," he said, referring to an opposition legal bid to force the result.
> 
> "The body authorised to release the results is the ZEC, let's wait for them to announce the results," Mbeki said.
> 
> As president of the regional power South Africa, Mbeki has come under fire for his muted response to the situation in Zimbabwe where two weeks after the presidential election no result has yet been announced.
> full story from IOL here


Just to point out, Mr. President, that the ZEC counting process ended a week ago.

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## Dave A

The SADC leaders seem happy with the way Thabo is going about things.



> Regional leaders called on South African President Thabo Mbeki to continue his mission as chief mediator between Zimbabwe's ruling party and the opposition following recent disputed elections.
> 
> "The summit congratulated and thanked the SADC facilitator, President Mbeki and his facilitation team for the role they had played in helping to contribute to the successful holding of election," a joint statement said.
> 
> "Summit requested president Mbeki to continue in his role as facilitator on Zimbabwe on the outstanding issue," said the statement issued at the conclusion of a summit of the 14-nation Southern African Development Community.
> from IOL here


The outstanding issue being...?

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## Vincent

I think our president lives in some other dimension, never mind another planet, where the roads are paved with gold, the trees lined with silver and the rivers flowing with the abundance of life - where there is no crisis.  :Banghead: 

...or maybe he is trying to learn from Mad Bob on how to run a country effectively, for the benefit of a few.

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## Chatmaster

Thabo Mbeki is what I like to call a perception manager. He manage to convince people that he has leadership qualities, however he lacks the true nature of a leader, being a leader! Mmmmmmm that was a weird statement.... I guess I am saying that he has proven himself once more for being unable to handle criminals and people unable to do their job. He fired the Deputy Minister of health for doing her job, but are unable to act when he faces true challenges (ESKOM, Crime, AIDS etc.). He simply is a weak leader with the ability to manage perception, in my opinion

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## Graeme

A recent article by Peter Osborne, writing in The Spectator is about the best summing up of the situation in Zimbabwe that I have come across so far:

ââ¦â¦â¦â¦â¦ Basically, President Mugabe has only three options, and time is running out very fast indeed.
   The first of these is to mount a coup dâetat,_ (this was written before the decision to re-count votes in certain areas_) the solution which is preferred by Mugabeâs inner circle.  Significantly, it seems to be favoured by General Constantine Chiwenga, commander in chief of the armed forces, and by Air Force Marshall Perence Shiri, Mugabeâs blood relation and close ally.
   It must be borne in mind that senior figures such as these do not merely stand to lose power if Mugabe loses, they also face the prospect of being brought to justice for the crimes of the Mugabe regime.  It was Perence Shiri, for instance, who led the North Korean-trained Fifth Brigades in the Matabeleland genocide of the early 1980âs.
   The problem with the idea of a coup dâetat (_or vote revision_) is not really the international condemnation that would inevitably result.  The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) might not like it, but under the prostrate guidance of Thabo Mbeki it would never lift a finger.
   The true problem is different:  there are real reasons to doubt whether commanders like Shiri (whose Chinese Mig fighters were buzzing low over Bulawayo in an act of naked intimidation when I was there two weeks ago) have the support of their troops.  There is overwhelming anecdotal evidence that ordinary soldiers and policemen, even some members of the feared Central Intelligence Organisation, have turned against Mugabe.  The director of intelligence, Happyton Bonyongwe, is said to be quietly supporting Tsvangirai.

   Mugabeâs second option is to declare the recent elections null and order a re-run.  There is striking evidence that that the President is preparing the way for this.  He is already taking revenge, for example, on the hapless Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, several of whose members have been arrested over the last few days.  In a marvellous irony, they are being accused of rigging the result against Zanu PF.
   If the President calls for a second election, it will be marked by all the intimidation and horror which was to a certain extent lacking on 29 March.  Mugabeâs Green Bombers, his licensed torturers and murderers who bear close resemblance to Hitlerâs Brownshirts, are already off the leash.

Finally, Mugabe could stand down.  Here one key ingredient would be a guarantee that he - and the scores of murderers and torturers who are linked to him - can live the rest of their lives in the peace and tranquillity they have denied so many others.  Granting Mugabe immunity from prosecution is hard to engineer and would be unpalatable for some.  Others may judge it well worthwhile.

   Meanwhile everyone waits for the old manâs next move.  I am told by a friend who runs one of Zimbabweâs very few remaining factories that the mood amongst the workforce has changed very sharply over the last 48 hours.  Hope has turned to bemusement and then - on Tuesday morning - to a silent pervasive sense of terror, as if something horrible might be just about to happen.â

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## Dave A

Now who ever heard of a recount being called without the result of the first count being announced?

*If* those first results reflected that a run-off was due, I can't see any reason why the results should not be published. There can be only one reason - Morgan Tsvangirai did, indeed, get more than 50% of the Presidential vote and the run-off would no longer be an option.

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## Chatmaster

I think this image from Zapiro explains it all.

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## Dave A

I see even Zapiro is struggling to get any satirical humour into the subject.

Jacob Zuma sure seems to be talking tough on the subject.



> African National Congress (ANC) president Jacob Zuma said on Tuesday Africa must send a mission to Zimbabwe to end a delay in issuing election results, which he called unacceptable.
> 
> In his toughest comments yet on the three-week delay in announcing results of a presidential vote, Zuma said: "It's not acceptable. It's not helping the Zimbabwean people who have gone out to ... elect the kind of party and presidential candidate they want, exercising their constitutional right."
> from M&G article here


You know what gets me - I can't think of a single redeeming feature of Mugabe's Presidency of late. If he was doing anything good for the country I might understand why he is fighting the result. But right now the best thing he can do for Zimbabwe is bow out, and he can't find it within himself to give his country even that one mercy.

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## murdock

why would he give up his life style...he lives better than a king...he has got toooo much to loose.

voting was a good opitunity for him to expose and pin point all mdc supporters and key members...and now he can crack down on them...good move...if you want to expose your opposition...now he just needs all his weapons being sent from china...and he can start a civil war.

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## Dave A

> The president and general secretary of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions are being subjected to "intensive interrogation", police in Harare confirmed on Friday.
> 
> The two were arrested on Thursday on charges of inciting violence and making inflammatory statements about the government during a May Day rally.
> 
> Lovemore Matombo and Wellington Chibebe are said to have made "false statements" about farm workers and others in the rural areas being killed and harassed by forces supporting the ruling Zanu-PF.
> full story from IOL here


I suppose the sequel is someone being arrested for making false statements about the harassment of ZCTU leaders.

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## Dave A

Zimbabwean opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai said on Saturday he will contest the run-off election against President Robert Mugabe.

"A run-off election could finally knock out the dictator [Mugabe] for good," he told reporters in Pretoria. "The run-off election could be the final round in a very long fight to liberate ourselves from our former liberator."

The run-off should take place within two weeks and not later than May 23, Tsvangirai said, adding that he would return Zimbabwe soon.

Tsvangirai also said there were conditions for the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) to take part in the election, including a halt to the current violence, the deployment of Southern African Development Community (SADC) peacekeepers, media access and that international observers be allowed into the country.

"The optimum conditions are conditions SADC should deliver, we put our faith in that, and we are going to run," he said.
full story from IOL here

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## Dave A

It's not looking pretty for free and fair elections in Zimbabwe. At what point do you call Bob's "democracy" a sham?



> Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe says liberation war veterans are ready to take up arms to prevent the opposition winning a June 27 presidential run-off.
> 
> "It will never happen that this land which we fought for should be taken by the MDC so that they can give it back to our former oppressors, the whites," the paper quoted him as saying.
> 
> MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai, human rights groups and Western powers accuse Mugabe of unleashing a brutal campaign to win the run-off. 
> 
> Tsvangirai says 66 of his followers have been murdered but former guerrilla leader Mugabe, who has ruled since independence from Britain in 1980, blames the MDC for violence that has caused widespread international concern. 
> 
> Earlier, the MDC said Zimbabwean police impounded two campaign buses used by Tsvangirai in the latest action against the opposition leader in the election campaign.
> ...

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## Marq

I think its going to be a long haul either way.

The interesting part is that the UN and US seem to be more active at the moment and we could see them put in a push to either oust Magube and the Veterans themselves or push SA to do it for them.

Civil war - well the same war escalating me thinks?????

Either way the region is in the dwang and we cannot afford this on top of the current economic woes.

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## Dave A

Doesn't this sound like Zimbabwe?



> *'We are prepared to die for Zuma'*
> African National Congress Youth League (ANCYL) president Julius Malema has vowed that the youth of South Africa would die in supporting ANC president Jacob Zuma. 
> 
> "We are prepared to die for Zuma," Malema told a Youth Day rally in Thaba Nchu in the Free State. 
> 
> "We are prepared to take up arms and kill for Zuma," Malema added at the end of his speech, while the crowd clapped hands and laughed.
> full story from M&G here

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## Marq

Interesting that the article did not pick up on the bit that was added to end of the news report that I saw last night. 

That's the bit that reported - if Zuma did not perform he would suffer a similar fate.

Makes one wonder who the activists the terrorists and the freedom fighters really are in this part of the world. What motivates a speech at this stage of the game with words as militant and hateful as Malema's. 

I think the earlier m&g article  http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx...ght__national/ is a great summary of the state of affairs in the country at the present time. The big divide could be wider than we think. A worrying problem, with bad behaviour and militant type action could sink us into a civil war scenario. 

Is it me or them over-reacting?

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## Dave A

I think henceforth I shall refer to the erstwhile President of Zimbabwe by a more appropriate title - Dictator Bob.

Even Morgan Tsvangirai has had to concede Dictator Bob has run an awesome campaign. Why leave things to chance, I reckon.

Well done Dictator Bob. May you enjoy the rich rewards you have so unjustly earned.

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## Yvonne

There was an excellent discussion this morning on the radio, John Robbie was talking to a Zimbabwian, unfortunately I did not hear his name.
At the end of the conversation he was asked if he had a message for South Africa, in a nut shell: he said ensure that we hold the "Rule of Law" sacrosanct.
No politician should be above the law!

Every citizen in South Africa - MUST BE EQUAL BEFORE OUR LAWS!

The ANC refusal to permit its South African citizens to have any say even in the naming of our own highways and roads! - this is a clear indication of where we might be heading, unless we all stand up and fight - we must refuse to permit anyone, anyone at all to attempt to put a political party, political leader, political appointee, or govt. employee. "above the law".

Mugabe said only God can remove him!  

The law should be seen as the ultimate God - not in a religious sense - but in the "supreme" highest held God given right - our right to every citizen being equal in the laws of our land.  

The ANCYL portraying a claim to a historic right to violence and a continuation of the "Freedom movement attitude! is deeply concerning. 
Nelson Mandela did everything he could to ensure equal rights within the law.  

Yvonne

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## wynn

I have this recurring vision of the 'Whitehouse' in Harare burning, watched by masses of singing and dancing people.
Grace running naked down the road with her hair burning while being chased by a mob of children.
Perhaps her comments that Morgan will never get to stay in the 'Whitehouse' will come true after all.

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## Dave A

Well done to Dictator Bob for successfully getting himself installed as President of Zimbabwe for another 5 year term. No problems with getting the result of the Presidential poll out this time, I see.

Did anyone watch the Zimbabwe and flamingo segments on Carte Blanche last night? I think Dictator Bob has got a worthy protÃ©gÃ©.

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## IanF

Great bit of parody on News24



> Congratulations Mr President
> 30/06/2008 08:14  - (SA)  
> 
> Lucas Ntyintyane, News24 User
> 
> Congratulations are in order to our dear president Robert Mugabe for winning another term in office. It was a tough race Mr President; the MDC gave you a scare. But I knew you had plenty of tricks up your sleeve.
> 
> I always said you were a fox. I was right. Using violence to scare the MDC supporters was brilliant. Violence has never let you down - right from the time you chased away the late Joshua Nkomo.
> 
> ...


News 24 link
But this is water off the flamingo's back

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## murdock

what is mugabe's problem...he doesnt seem to think there is a problem its everyone else who has a problem.

well it is sad to say but i am starting to wonder about our goverment they dont seem to have any problems either...the way the country is falling apart has nothing to do with them...they still living pretty and the only thing that is getting better is the tax system so there are more suplus funds to squander...the fact that the interest rates...petrol prices and everything else is going up doesnt affect them because they are civil servant and so long as the tax money is pouring in who cares what happens to the rest of us...the fact that the reposesion rate of cars have gone from 5 a day to 35 a day...i heard a rumour that absa bank is set to repo 7000 houses this month...here i thought i got my house at a bargain is gona be the going rate for properties shortly...with you being able to buy a house which was valued at 1 million you will get on auction for around R700 000...i should have waited another couple of months.

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## Dave A

Come now. We can't let a bump or two on a flamingo's leg stop us.

It was like watching Dictator Bob junior.

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## Dave A

It looks like much of the world has got tired of Thabo Mbeki's "quiet diplomacy."



> A call by eight of the world's most powerful leaders to send a United Nations envoy to Zimbabwe and to press for new sanctions against Robert Mugabe's regime is a stinging humiliation for long-time mediator Thabo Mbeki and his policy of quiet diplomacy, analysts said on Wednesday. 
> 
> The South African president, who was at the Group of Eight (G8) summit in Japan, has long argued he is best placed to broker a settlement between Zimbabwe's governing party and opposition and that sanctions would only worsen the situation.
> 
> But while world leaders have previously been willing to leave the hot potato of Zimbabwe in his lap, observers said Tuesday's statement by the G8 shows they have run of patience with the South African leader's softly-softly approach.
> 
> "It is extremely humiliating," said Hussein Solomon, director of the Pretoria-based Centre for International Policy studies.
> 
> Solomon said that Mbeki's refusal to criticise Mugabe had not only been discredited in the eyes of the West but was regarded with increasing scepticism closer to home.
> ...

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## kernel32

Didn't some of the anti-apartheid activists hide in Zimbabwe years ago?  Please correct me if I'm wrong.  This might be a case of loyalty to an old friend?

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## Dave A

> This might be a case of loyalty to an old friend?


Almost certainly. However, when that friend is pretty plainly off reservation, a good friend uses his/her influence to nudge them back to the light, or help them execute a quiet exit. Thabo has not managed to do that.

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## kernel32

> ... Thabo has not managed to do that.


Unfortunately Thabo has neglected quite a few of his duties.  I wonder if Zuma will be any worse?

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