Long Bets, future predictions

[vieome]

The Death Of Google 2014

Google will not die, but it has lost its ability to provide the best content on any given subject. My argument for this is simple, google can and is exploited by people who understand the how links and key words work. In doing so pages are getting rank number 1 when they are not the best source of content that one seeks. More and more I find that google searches are giving me less and less of what my search is after. Used to be time where google worked well, but now is works well for the who know how to exploit it.

In the begining after the command line, when search began to make its way into our world our digital lifes, google seemed to have the answer with high ranking links and key words, but exploitation of that by SEO is taking away the content that one might be searching for, I am begining to see that a new search type is needed.

There was a time that one google search led you in the right direction, but now it takes several searchs to find the right door one is looking for. Google could re-vamp its search, but most times tech companies get lost in their own ego's, Bill gates believed 240mb was all the memory that one would ever need, he also thought the internet would never catch on.

What long bets do you have ?

[Blurock]

I agree. My wife googles Italian cooking and ends up reading about some new cleaning product or how to get your shoes dry after you've been out in the rain.

[Dave A]

The trouble is any potentially significant competitor that is going to knock Google off its top spot faces exactly the same problem.

[vieome]

I agree Dave but also my thinking is the younger generation are always in need of some form new fashionable technology, I was surprised when my daughter blurted out the other day that google is useless. My thinking is that google will not die but a new search engine will lead the search war, even if only for a short period of time. Was trying to watch a few videos on you tube the other day, and noticed since google took over, I have to watch some pointless advert first, things like that bug the younger generation and they move to and populated a new area. Even in terms of a Giant like Facebook, it seems that some ex-facebook employees are lauching a new network site, similiar to facebook, their plan is to simply leave the ownership of content photos info etc in the users hands,. I find it interesting the way tech companies can grow or how startups can come and with a simple idea change into the new leaders of the block.

[Dave A]

Here's an idle thought.

Today I got a call from Ananzi. You'd think they were trying to sell me their overpriced (only my opinion, of course) directory listing service. But no - they wanted to send a consultant to meet me and discuss how they could advertise my business with Google Adwords.

[vieome]

Here's an idle thought.

Today I got a call from Ananzi. You'd think they were trying to sell me their overpriced (only my opinion, of course) directory listing service. But no - they wanted to send a consultant to meet me and discuss how they could advertise my business with Google Adwords.

That is my point exactly, Google is advertising company masquerading as a search Engine, and in this day and age, news about software spreads rapidly, over night their search clients can change, they will continue to have advertising clients, but the searches will move to another program. It is only a long bet.

[tec0]

My fear is that android phones will soon be consumed by the market advertisers and it is already showing the symptoms. Anyone that owns such a device knows that you cannot gat actual "free programs for it" It is almost always linked to constant advertisement. This brings into question ethics from both the software developer AND our Telecommunications industry.

Fact is our service providers are smiling all the way to the bank! These devices are essentially internet dependant thus the owner of the device consumes large quantities of data, giving the device a massive hidden cost. I predict that the android phenomena will go the way of the dodo and stable OS systems like your MS based phones/I Phones will stand the test of time.

So Unless Android finds a way to bring down the data consumption of its devices they will soon lose the market hold. Fact is how many people are on "prepaid" services and how many of them can actually afford to spend money on 2 GB of data per month alongside normal phone use?

I too started to question Google lately, there market ethic is not what it was a few years back. I don’t use Google anymore and started to use Yahoo and MS Search. About 50% of the time I will find something with Yahoo or MS Search then on Google?

Now I did a simple wallpaper search and I found that Yahoo and MS Search showed "slightly" different results then Google. Perhaps doing your own tests can confirm and or deny this. That said keep in mind that Google will just keep on loading results so I used only the first page of each site for comparison.

[adrianh]

Android - These devices are essentially internet dependant thus the owner of the device consumes large quantities of data, giving the device a massive hidden cost.

BULLTWANG

I have a Samsung Galaxy Tab 10'1 and it is not dependent on the net for anything. I use it offline most of the time and I hardly even have a SIM card in it. The little ads imbedded in the software is fine, it doesn't get in the way and it doesn't distract from what you are trying to do.

[irneb]

My fear is that android phones will soon be consumed by the market advertisers and it is already showing the symptoms. Anyone that owns such a device knows that you cannot gat actual "free programs for it" It is almost always linked to constant advertisement. This brings into question ethics from both the software developer AND our Telecommunications industry.

Only slightly correct. Apart from adrianh pointing out that Android is not necessarily net dependent, you can actually turn off data connection for an Android (even a non rooted one).

But what you're on about is advertising in apps. That's definitely not an Andrid-only thing. iPhone & Win phones' apps have the same things - especially for their free apps. Usually, there would be 2 versions of an app: A "Free" add-ware version and a paid-for-add-free version. The whole point behind a programmer making an app is for HIM to make money (no matter where he's uploaded his app to or for what phone/tablet). So he gives a cut-down and/or add-ware app for free to get people using the app, add-ware so he can make some profit from even a "free" app. But then also gives a full version / app-free version if someone pays him for it. And this is on all smart phones ... even the old Nokia & BB's got similar. You do get open-source apps, e.g. Waze - in which case it's "truly" free, but these are scarce in all mobile OS's. It might have been different if one of the truly open-source mobile OS's were more prevalent (e.g. WebOS / Meego) - we might have seen a similar "community" as we see for Linux.

I've found that the add-ware tend to show the same adds in sequence, and that this causes caching on the phone. So re-downloading is less of an issue. I can easily say 80% of my phone's 500MB/month is due to emails & web browsing - not apps (I even use Kindle on my phone and this checks my Amazon account each time it's opened).

[tec0]

But what you're on about is advertising in apps. That's definitely not an Andrid-only thing.

I don’t know, I downloaded an application on an android device and it killed 75mb in less than a view hours? I can also proof this because I only disabled that application and did not delete it "yet" Every time I used this application the screen would lock and it will tell me that a full version is available?

So maybe my "bad" experience is connected to this application? Also the advertising links was really aggressive? After this single application I lost interest in the device and generalized that this application's behaviour will ring true for all of them.

Was I wrong? I don’t know I didn’t care enough to find out.

BULLTWANG

I have a Samsung Galaxy Tab 10'1 and it is not dependent on the net for anything. I use it offline most of the time and I hardly even have a SIM card in it. The little ads imbedded in the software is fine, it doesn't get in the way and it doesn't distract from what you are trying to do.

Now the tablet and the mobile phone have a similar OS but that is where the similarities end. Can you use your android phone without a SIM card? To a degree yes but for the most part no.

Factually it is not the same thing because people will actually try and phone you hence the need for a SIM card? If you have an android phone and you disable its internet many applications will fail to function. Example would be the GPS… "Depending on make and model"

Secondly if you have a look at how many applications are running in the background you will find a few of them are also net dependant. And this was after I used the manager to end "shut-down" all applications.

So is it BULL TWANG? No… Fact is your device can function only via its Wi-Fi if it needs too. Your "phone" can also run without a SIM but that would really be pointless now wouldn’t it?

I remember downloading an application on my Nokia from OVI store and it actually linked me up to website and it needs to be open all the time for the program to function. Now the website was questionable so I deleted it.

This is why I see this platform disappearing in the near future. It is about control… You really need to know your device inside and out to manage it properly and because the advertisement is already very aggressive on some "free-applications" I don’t think people will tolerate it for too long.

Now if you can walk in and buy the application at a store and load it up this may change but until then I fear the worst.

[wynn]

I tend to ignore the top block and the right hand column of a 'Google search' because most of the ads are from china.

When I do a search for a product I look straight at the body and only click on dot coza links, unfortunately there are a lot of gumtree and other directory links you have to wade through before you find a genuine supplier, usually on or about page three.

[irneb]

It's very possible that some apps would overdo this. I tend to rather think of it as the app creator being stupid, so for me it's a situation of those apps will die out. I think as more users use the apps, they'd start to figure out which ones are simply an immediate UNINSTALL!

What does give me a bit of gripe is more in line with the thread's OP - the search on most of these App Stores (Android / Apple / Branded) tends to show reams of apps which are little more than single-website-browsers. Usually the user rating idea does allow for some "weeding the chaff out", but you still need to scroll through them all to find something actually useful. Both the Android Market and Apple AppStore sing the praises of having millions of apps, but perhaps 0.0001% of those are actually something I can see myself using. And perhaps 99.999% are simply "stupid" ... in between you get the 0.0009% of border-line cases which are usually duplicates of the 0.0001% (only lower rated).

As for data-leaking, I think it's more of an issue here. My sister in Dubai cannot understand what I'm on about (complaining about bandwidth) when she emails me a link to a 2GB video of a family gathering. Apparently that costs her nearly nothing. If such is the case overseas, then I don't think the 75MB download for adds is even going to register with most users.

[irneb]

Here's another sample of an app trying to force something down your throat: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/08/07/ios_glitch_/

Given, it's actually a stuff-up on their-side. What I do read between the lines: That bank obviously has a deal on (at least) with the makers of Rapport. Why should they enforce a particular AV on you (even if you're using M$)? Should it not be something like checking if your AV is sufficient, and if not give a list of acceptable brands? But then again, this is a bank, so they tend to think of their clients as slaves anyway!

[adrianh]

To tie in with tec0. I absolutely hate advertising and marketing. Advertising and marketing should be considered the cancer of modern life. It invades and infects every single aspect of our lives. There will come a time where you will first have to listen to a marketing schplurp before the toilet cover will open....I would just love to throttle sms marketers, telemarketers....well most marketers for that matter.

[tec0]

To tie in with tec0. I absolutely hate advertising and marketing. Advertising and marketing should be considered the cancer of modern life. It invades and infects every single aspect of our lives. There will come a time where you will first have to listen to a marketing schplurp before the toilet cover will open....I would just love to throttle sms marketers, telemarketers....well most marketers for that matter.

I wish that there can be a service that will just block the lot of them!!! To wake up at 2:00 AM!!!! via an SMS that wants to sell me life insurance is beyond any reasoning!!! I would happily pay R50 a month two have all of it blocked!!! "But clearly our service providers wouldn’t allow for that…