The economic consequences of load shedding

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  • Dave A
    Site Caretaker

    • May 2006
    • 22810

    #1

    The economic consequences of load shedding

    South African load shedding has just got to be hurting our economy.
    I'll comment on some of the economic impact we're experiencing later, but here are some views from a foreign investment point of view.

    Eskom's call for the government not to advertise South Africa as an investment location with cheap electricity does not mean the country is closed for new business.

    This is the view of Iraj Abedian, the chief executive of Pan African Advisory Services, who said yesterday: "What the call does is open up options for investors and give guidance.

    "It says all those who want to invest in South Africa should look at industries with less reliance on energy, among other things. When investors come here, they need to reprofile the industries they want to enter."

    Tony Twine, a senior economist at Econometrix, said Eskom's advice simply meant that low-cost power was no longer a positive attribute, as it had been in the past.

    He said it was difficult to say whether this would affect foreign direct investment because it was unclear how attractive low-cost power had been when investors made their decisions.

    "Cheap labour and property could be among the attractions that would continue to woo foreign investors," Twine said.

    Mario Galletti, a trade analyst at the Italian Trade Commission, said the economic effect could be huge, as informal discussions in lifts and dinner parties showed that concern was mounting.

    "I think the reason we have not had a formal complaint from [business] chambers is because people thought the problem would be temporary," Galletti said.

    "But ... because it will last for at least another three years, people back home would treat power cuts the same way they do crime.

    "They would only ask how we are surviving in South Africa and would not simply disinvest."

    A UK Trade & Investment official, who did not want to be named, said that though the power cuts would not cast South Africa in a good light, they would not deter firms from investing because they always believed the issue would be resolved sooner rather than later.
    from Business Report here
    I'll make a post on how load shedding is affecting our business later when I've got a bit more time.

    In the meantime, how is it affecting your business?
    Participation is voluntary.

    Alcocks Electrical Services | Alcocks Pest Control & Entomological Services | Alcocks Hygiene Services
  • Debbiedle
    Gold Member

    • Jun 2006
    • 561

    #2
    We are right now in the process of shifting what would have been an employee expansion budget to pay for additional UPS's! Delaying expansion by about 6 months! I have been able to work for exactly 4 business days this year after Telkom went down, Eskom went down, my ISP went down and I eventually went down with anger management problems!!!!!!!
    Regards

    Debbie
    debbie@stafftraining.co.za

    From reception to management training, assertiveness, accountability or interviewing skills, we have a wide range of training workshops available for you!
    www.stafftraining.co.za

    Find us on
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    • IanF
      Moderator

      • Dec 2007
      • 2680

      #3
      We've only had 1 power failure so far, but if it comes and there are jobs running on the copiers then you have problems especially if you are doing a run of say 200 manuals. The printed manuals have to be counted and then restart. We also have to sometimes manually wash the ink rollers on the press as it is not good to leave them inked overnight.
      Only stress when you can change the outcome!

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      • Dave A
        Site Caretaker

        • May 2006
        • 22810

        #4
        Eish, Debbie. And I thought we were having fun and games!

        On our side we've had 8 hours of power shedding this week (so far) for our office. Future power shedding is now covered for the office - we've got the backup generator installed at a cost of R7500.00 give or take a few cents. So from here on in any outages will cost us around R25.00 per hour between fuel and maintenance costs of the generator (at current fuel prices).

        From here it is the impact on our field staff that is going to be the headache. Arriving at a client's house when the electricity is off is somewhat of a problem for the electrical company.

        Durban has been broken into 6 blocks of 2 hours each for load shedding purposes. In theory this means there is a 1 in 6 chance of us arriving at a client's house to find no electricity. It's too early to say what the actual stat might end up being, but I've asked for the issue to be tracked.

        As a cause of unnecessary wastage and expense, this one is going to add up.

        On the upside, we got 4 enquiries to install backup generators today
        Participation is voluntary.

        Alcocks Electrical Services | Alcocks Pest Control & Entomological Services | Alcocks Hygiene Services

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        • Chatmaster
          Platinum Member

          • Aug 2006
          • 1065

          #5
          A guy was interviewed yesterday on 702, he lost a R10mil deal because of the load shedding,... I decided, I have nothing to complain about...

          Dave you are highlighting a very important point. The load shedding will create a snowball effect on our businesses. I was at a client yesterday, he had 3 workshops going when the first power failure hit. There was in total over 100 delegates, all employees that took time of work to attend a workshop. They were effectively interrupted for 2 hours. The problem this created is the following. Here was over 100 employees, not at work, that effectively had a 4 hour interrupted workshop, which meant they lost half the day's training. The chances was good that they would have to return the next day to continue their 1 day workshop. That is if my client had the venue available to do so. The point I am making is that the snowball costs is very high. This was at one single venue!

          Employees are effectively spending 1 hour longer in traffic in Jhb. I missed an appointment today, simply because I was stuck in traffic for the entire duration of what the client had available to see me. Traffic lights was out and I was stuck. My one friend had the exact same problem, difference was he was stuck in a lift. Same happened to another friend being stuck behind a magnetic door in a shop for 2 hours, the toilet was outside btw.

          Shacking head in misery.
          Roelof Vermeulen (Entrepreneurship in large organizations)
          Enterprise Art Management Software| Rock flaps south africa

          Comment

          • Yvonne
            Silver Member

            • May 2006
            • 361

            #6
            There are consequences that you would not ever take into account!

            Long story: Short version.
            Bank fraud - all linked accounts. Over R100,000 involved.
            Try to stop all transactions; Bank require S.A.P. case number.
            Police unable to give case number - no electricity, have to wait until power is restored.

            Lack of constant supply of adequate electricity is not a threat to the stability of our businesses - it is a fact!

            What about the economic viability of future developments in the knowledge that there will be insufficient power available: First priority will be the need to provide your own power, if that is a feasible cost, then the feasibility of the actual development next?
            Cost will surely rule out future developments?

            Should a development such as the Gauteng Train continue, surely this will draw a substantial amount off the grid?

            Plans for residential developments are not being passed as electricity cannot be supplied!

            I have concerns about "abuse" of power with regard to which areas are selected for power shedding, (Eskom offices are never without power during working hours?)
            The potential for corruption in regard to obtaining "protection" from shedding exists.

            Yvonne

            Comment

            • Yvonne
              Silver Member

              • May 2006
              • 361

              #7
              Apologies, see this is well covered in another post, had not read all my unread posts, and should not have posted so quickly!
              Yvonne

              Comment

              • Dave A
                Site Caretaker

                • May 2006
                • 22810

                #8
                Originally posted by Yvonne
                Apologies, see this is well covered in another post, had not read all my unread posts,
                There was bound to be some cross-over, Yvonne. I don't see any problems with that.
                Participation is voluntary.

                Alcocks Electrical Services | Alcocks Pest Control & Entomological Services | Alcocks Hygiene Services

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                • murdock
                  Suspended

                  • Oct 2007
                  • 2346

                  #9
                  to give you an idea...i go to site because of an electrical fault i get to site started tracing the fault power goes off so i leave site drive from westville to customer next to gateway...e/l has blown form lightning...get there no power replace the e/l unit and switch back on and hope it works...off to sarnia to work at a customer no power...so now i have to plan my day and visits around load shedding...cut back on staff because i dont need people sitting around on site waitng for power.

                  companies are suffering...i have a customer who wants to put in a generator...the cost to keep the plant running... 1.8 million excluding installation and waiting period 4 months...more than 50 staff sit every day for 4 hours and the machines loose production of 6 hours because of the time required to setup after the load shedding takes 1 hour the company is running 24/7...and you think you have problems.

                  Comment

                  • Dave A
                    Site Caretaker

                    • May 2006
                    • 22810

                    #10
                    Add replacement of maliciously damaged property to the cost.
                    Three trains were set alight in Pretoria by angry commuters, police said on Friday.

                    Captain Prince Mokhabela said the first train was burnt in Pretoria North at 6pm.

                    "There was a power failure and commuters got angry as trains were not moving. People also burned trains at Walmerton and Winterveld," he said.

                    No one was injured and no arrests were made.

                    Police are investigating cases of malicious damage to property.
                    full story from M&G here
                    Participation is voluntary.

                    Alcocks Electrical Services | Alcocks Pest Control & Entomological Services | Alcocks Hygiene Services

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                    • Marq
                      Platinum Member

                      • May 2006
                      • 1297

                      #11
                      Was looking for something completely unrelated and came across this page on the South african.info site for some reason.......



                      This report is dated february 2006 - two years ago - So what happened in the meantime to this 'Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative (ASGISA)' and Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka's BS on infrastructure development.

                      Besides the anthem being changed to 'sounds of silence' we have that old trusted ditty used at wedding speeches and the like ....'how the hell can we believe you'
                      The cost of living hasn't affected its popularity.
                      Sponsored By: http://www.honeycombhouse.com

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                      • bullfrog
                        Full Member

                        • Dec 2006
                        • 76

                        #12
                        I've had about 8 hours of power out cause of load shedding and more than 5 hours on another day. I believe the 5 hours on the one day might have been caused by a big fire, but there's no way to be sure.

                        The direct costs aren't quite as apparent in my business as I'm still quite small. I also choose to always work on my laptop which lasts the full duration of the outages in most cases but I still have to sit without internet which is a big issue as making sure that servers are running smoothly is 24/7 job. So once the power goes out all work at the office comes to a grinding stop. Most of the services I offer requires an internet connection so there's really nothing I can do without one.

                        In the web design department it hits a little harder. For me to get clients I need other businesses to do well enough to be able to afford to get web sites designed. With the power issues, businesses suffer which makes it harder to get clients. Not to mention the people who are generally in a bad mood, more so than usual, cause of all the power issues.

                        I'll definitely be investing in a ups for all the office peripherals and the adsl router.
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                        • murdock
                          Suspended

                          • Oct 2007
                          • 2346

                          #13
                          air polution....10000 diesel genertors running at the same time pumping black smoke into the air...what is worse 1 power plant or a whole lot of small plants generating heat and polution...more fuel being used...noise polution??? all these issues are going to become a reality.

                          wake up in the morning no power your day starts
                          no breakfast
                          no hairdryer
                          no hot water for the baby bottle
                          get in your car and drive to work no robots chaos so called 4 way stop yeah right this is africa
                          get to work no computer...telephone exchange...machinery...
                          lights...factory has been broken into because the electric fence was down...alarm battery went flat...staff sit around with nothing to do until power comes on loss of production do we put the staff on short time until the power comes on???do we re-arrange lunch and tea times???start work later and make people work later???and if there is load shedding put the staff on short time???
                          go to site and to find load shedding has just started send the customer a call out fee...and then another call out fee when you go back???what happens if all the places i plan to work during the day are load shedding do i send my staff home without pay???
                          the list just goes on and on...wait till the water problems starts.

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                          • duncan drennan
                            Email problem

                            • Jun 2006
                            • 2642

                            #14
                            I wonder if we'll see an increase in the sales of gas appliances, such as stoves and geysers? There probably already has been quite an increase. It is nice to know that I can at least cook even if the power is out.

                            I wonder if there is merit in changing large (industrial) electrical water heating applications over to gas?

                            As always, with the economic loss on the one hand, there are a number of opportunities that arise for certain industries.

                            |

                            Comment

                            • duncan drennan
                              Email problem

                              • Jun 2006
                              • 2642

                              #15
                              I saw a headline in the newspaper (didn't read the article) that the requirement for energy consumption reduction is 20%. That is a huge amount to drop!

                              You could probably drop all household consumption by that amount by just installing solar geysers (another group of people who are going to benefit), but what about within industry? Solar water heaters for industry? Where are the places that companies could cut 20% of electricity usage?

                              Does anyone know whether the aluminium smelters operate at night? Any chance for load shifting?

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