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Logic, math & statistics puzzle...that holds some wonderful lessons!
Yes, you're right, sorry. Was being distracted with the "0" that someone suggested and the negative amounts.... then I thought but what about 1 and 3 and 5...?
Adrian... where are you...? we have 6 possible rules so far... 4 to go.... BUT... can't we adjust "your" rules so that we can get the answer/explanation now... before the weekend starts...
Rules
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1. Christel - The rule is that the numbers chosen by Adrian (2,4,6) was just to get us thinking... but the answer is any number, except for a zero and not a negative number.
2. HR - Rule is ascending (increasing numbers)
3. MikeC -One of the rules could be any number greater than 6
4 - Marq - Any positive number
Ok, the rule is: Any number after 6.
Lets look at the tests
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1. Most people went looking for sequences higher than 6..
Why did you think that the number should be higher than 6...because the sequenced numbers prompted you to do so.
If I possed the sequence as 6 4 2 I bet that most people would have looed for number lower than 2.
2. A lot of tests seemed to be purely random - Why?
3. Christel was very quick to look at the situation in reverse.
Most people look for a pattern because we are programmed to do so, very few people start with an infinite date set and then systematically eliminate very large data sets working towards smaller sets.
4. We assume that the data 2, 4, 6 are related to one another in some way (it could simply have ben 2 eggs, 4 wheel and 6 cigarettes, for no reason at all.
5. Our pattern recognition software takes precedence and try to project the data forward.
This has very interesting consequences that marketers use...lets say a TV ad said that a chocolate bar cost R2, 3 years ago, R4 2 years ago and R6 last year. We would have predicted the price to be R8 this year, for no other reason than it following a pattern. He now tells you that the chocolate bar is on special and only costs R7. Many people would see this as a bargain even though he never said that it should cost R8, we simply projected the number.
6. Making rules based of small data sets is very dangerous. An economist would use a small data set to project forward creating a pattern where there is none.
7. I think that we have to be very careful of our pattern recognition software because it kicks in automatically and often leads us up the garden path.
I don't believe that I insulted you, I said that I think that your thinking is narrow-minded, that is not an insult, it is simply my view of how you think. Narrow-mindedness is a function of specialization, you are probably a highly specialized engineer that is extremely good at what you do. I think very broad-mindedly but I am totally non-specialized.
hmmm....I'll say this much, I will hire Christel in a flash...you, not a chance, your mind is far too narrow!
Could such a response be because of the very thing the exercise was pointing out, when peoples thoughts align with our own we are like yes, good thinker, when not, we engage pattern software thinking and label to it.
Originally posted by adrianh
7. I think that we have to be very careful of our pattern recognition software because it kicks in automatically and often leads us up the garden path.
I don't believe that I insulted you, I said that I think that your thinking is narrow-minded, that is not an insult, it is simply my view of how you think. Narrow-mindedness is a function of specialization, you are probably a highly specialized engineer that is extremely good at what you do. I think very broad-mindedly but I am totally non-specialized.
Its an insult to me and judging from vioeme's comment s/he agrees to a degree.
If I would be a narrow minded specialised engineer I would not have changed my career 180 degrees either. Even my engineering education was very broad based which made me a generalist and I did another degree on top in Supply Chain. As I said you have no clue about me so you cannot judge me the way you did. There was and is no need to judge either.
Mayeb you should look at your motto "You cannot depend on your eyes if your imagination is out of focus” and live by it.
Houses4Rent
"We treat your investment as we treat our own" marc@houses4rent.co.zawww.houses4rent.co.za 083-3115551
Global Residential Property Investor / Specialized Letting Agent & Property Manager
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Was being distracted with the "0" that someone suggested and the negative amounts.... then I thought but what about 1 and 3 and 5...?
always fear when Christel is near....
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